The next hurricane season is not scheduled to begin until June 1, but the Atlantic basin is a much clearer picture now of what may lie ahead for the Atlantic basin. There is a probability of more than a 50 percent probability of a near-normal or below-normal hurricane season.
According to the late-season in-season projections of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the probability of a below-normal season is highest for the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins. Furthermore, these basin areas experienced a low number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the past two years.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for a generally below-normal season over the eastern tropical Atlantic, with only a 10 to 20 percent chance of an above-normal season.
Below normal season conditions are predicted for the Atlantic basin, but the model guidance indicates more uncertainty over the projected season. Looking at the projected season models can be challenging because of the variability. Given the uncertainties, NOAA provides the following guidance for the activities in the Atlantic Basin for the upcoming hurricane season: